• Steep Decline in International Tourism: The U.S. is projected to be the only major economy experiencing a significant drop in international tourism revenue and arrivals in 2025, with potential GDP losses exceeding $23 billion and over 230,000 jobs at risk.
• Primary Causes of the Downturn: The decline is largely attributed to a combination of “Trump tariffs,” stricter border controls, high travel costs (airfare, lodging), a strong U.S. dollar making visits expensive, and a perception that the U.S. has become less welcoming to international visitors.
• Significant Impact on Key Source Markets: Traditionally strong source markets like Canada are showing a dramatic pullback (e.g., Canadian land crossings down 35% in April), with notable declines also seen or anticipated from Europe, Mexico, Japan, China, Brazil, and South Korea.
• Urgent Call for Policy and Strategy Changes: Industry experts and stakeholders are calling for immediate action from U.S. policymakers to ease visa and border processes, improve diplomatic relations, and for businesses to adapt marketing and pricing strategies to counter this “full-blown emergency.”

The U.S. travel and tourism industry is facing an unprecedented crisis in 2025, with projections indicating a steep decline in international visitor arrivals and spending. This downturn, unique among major global economies, is attributed primarily to a confluence of factors including “Trump tariffs,” stringent border controls, soaring costs for airlines and hotels, and an international perception of the U.S. as less welcoming. A new report highlights that this situation could lead to a shocking loss of over $23 billion in U.S. GDP and jeopardize more than 230,000 jobs, predominantly in service-oriented sectors like restaurants, hotels, and entertainment.

The financial fallout is already becoming evident. International tourist spending is forecasted to drop by approximately 7% compared to 2024 and a staggering 22% from the 2019 pre-pandemic peak. This translates to an estimated loss of over $13 billion in labor income alone. The impact is particularly acute in border towns that rely heavily on Canadian visitors, who are reportedly staying away in droves due to trade tensions and perceived political hostility. Canadian land crossings to the U.S. dropped by 35% in April alone, with air travel down 20%, contributing to a predicted 20% overall plunge in Canadian tourism for the year.

Similarly, visitors from Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, and South Korea are also rethinking or canceling their U.S. travel plans. Western Europe is expected to send 6% fewer visitors, and the strong U.S. dollar is further eroding the purchasing power of tourists from countries like Japan and Brazil by nearly 30% compared to 2019. This downturn marks a sharp reversal from optimistic projections made just months prior, which anticipated significant growth in international arrivals and spending for 2025. Now, flight bookings for peak summer months are down by 11%. Industry leaders and economists are sounding the alarm, urging swift action to ease visa processing, reduce border friction, and rebuild international goodwill through diplomacy to prevent long-lasting damage to America’s largest service export and its broader economy.